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Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How can We Know? [Audiobook] by Philip E Tetlock [Dr Soc]

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  Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it?
How can We Know? [Audiobook] by Philip E. Tetlock
  Audio CDs in MP3 / English: MP3, 64 kb/s (2 ch) | Duration:
09:24:25 | 2013 | ISBN-10: N/A | ASIN: B00GN5XA3U | 134 MB
  Genre: Politics
  Philip E. Tetlock (Author)
  Anthony Haden Salerno (Narrator)
  
  The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq
dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that
need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why
experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
  
  Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is
too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates
predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on
simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in
forecasting.
  
  Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog,
Tetlock contends that the fox - the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions,
and is better able to improvise in response to changing events - is more successful in predicting the future than the
hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined
problems.
  
  He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good
judgment and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits - the single-minded determination required to prevail
in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the audiobook fills a huge void in the literature on
evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop
standards for judging expert decision-making.
  
  
  
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